4 Key Trends for the Future of Packaging

Smithers’ long-term forecast analyzes four key trends that indicate how the packaging industry will evolve.

According to Smithers’ research in The Future of Packaging: Long-term Strategic Forecasts to 2028, the global packaging market is set to grow at nearly 3% per year between 2018 and 2028, reaching more than $1.2 trillion. In the global packaging market grew by 6.8% from 2013 to 2018 most of the growth came from less developed markets for more consumers moving to urban areas and subsequently adopting a more westernized lifestyle. This is driving the need for packaged goods and is accelerated globally by the e-commerce industry.

Numerous drivers are having a significant impact on the global packaging industry.

4 key trends that will emerge over the next decade:

1. Impact of economic and demographic growth on innovative packaging

The global economy is expected to continue its general expansion over the next decade, driven by growth in emerging consumer markets. The impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and the escalation of the tariff war between the US and China may cause short-term disruptions. Overall, however, incomes are expected to rise, increasing consumer spending on packaged goods.

The global population is expected to increase, particularly in key emerging markets such as China and India, where urbanization rates will continue to grow. This translates into increased consumer income on consumer goods and exposure to modern retail channels, as well as a growing middle class eager to be exposed to global brands and shopping habits.

Increased life expectancy will lead to an aging population – especially in major developed markets such as Japan – which will increase demand for healthcare and pharmaceutical products. At the same time, there is a need for easy-to-open solutions and packaging suited to the needs of the elderly. Also fueling the demand for smaller portion packaged goods; as well as more convenience, such as innovations in resealable or microwavable packaging.

2. Packaging sustainability and eco-friendly packaging materials

Concerns about the environmental impact of products are an established phenomenon, but since 2017 there has been a renewed interest in sustainability, with a particular focus on packaging. This is reflected in central government and municipal regulations, consumer attitudes and brand owner values communicated through packaging.

The EU is leading the way in this area by promoting circular economy principles. There is a particular focus on plastic waste, with plastic packaging coming under special scrutiny as a high-volume, single-use item. Numerous strategies are being advanced to address the issue, including alternative materials for packaging, investing in the development of bio-based plastics, designing packaging to make it easier to recycle and dispose of, and improving recycling and disposal mechanisms for plastic waste.

Plastic recycling and disposal

As sustainability has become a key driver for consumers, brands are increasingly keen on packaging materials and designs that visibly demonstrate a commitment to the environment.

3. Consumer trends – online shopping and e-commerce logistics packaging

The global online retail market continues to grow rapidly, driven by the popularity of the internet and smartphones. Consumers are increasingly buying more goods online. This will continue to grow through 2028 and will increase the demand for packaging solutions, particularly corrugated formats, that can safely transport goods through more complex distribution channels.

More and more people are consuming food, beverages, medicines, and other products while traveling. The demand for convenient and portable packaging solutions is increasing and the flexible packaging industry is one of the major beneficiaries.

With the shift to single life, more consumers – especially the younger segment – tend to buy groceries more frequently and in smaller quantities. This is driving growth in convenience store retail and driving demand for more convenient, smaller-sized formats.

Consumers are increasingly interested in their health, leading to healthier lifestyles. As a result, this is driving demand for packaged goods such as healthy foods and beverages (e.g., gluten-free, organic/natural, portion-controlled) as well as over-the-counter medications and nutritional supplements.

4. Brand Master Trend – Smart and Digitalization

Many brands in the FMCG industry are becoming increasingly internationalized as companies seek new high-growth segments and markets. By 2028, this process will be accelerated by increasingly westernized lifestyles in major growth economies.

The globalization of e-commerce and international trade has also spurred demand from brand owners for packaging accessories such as RFID tags and smart labels to prevent counterfeit goods and better monitor their distribution.

Industry consolidation is also expected to continue with merger and acquisition activities in end-use sectors such as food, beverages, and cosmetics. As more brands come under the control of a single owner, their packaging strategies are likely to consolidate.

In the 21st century consume less brand loyalty. This mimics the interest in customized or versioned packaging and packaging solutions that can impact them. Digital (inkjet and toner) printing provides a key means of achieving this, with higher throughput presses dedicated to packaging substrates now being installed for the first time. This further aligns with the desire for integrated marketing, with packaging providing the means to link to social media.